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Jong Utrecht vs Roda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong Utrecht
Jong Utrecht
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Roda
Roda
12/22/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 21Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Jong Utrecht36%
×Draw24%
Roda39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong Utrecht
1.45
Roda
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 149 home / 148 away

creates per match

Jong Utrecht
1.29
Roda
1.38

allows per match

Jong Utrecht
1.67
Roda
1.61

finishing

Jong Utrecht+0.00on par
Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong Utrecht ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Jong Utrecht or draw
61%
Jong Utrecht or Roda
76%
Draw or Roda
64%

Winning margin

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+
17%
Roda wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals
77%
Jong Utrecht 2+ goals
42%
Jong Utrecht 3+ goals
18%
Roda 1+ goals
78%
Roda 2+ goals
45%
Roda 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)
48%
Roda (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong Utrecht at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 149 matches

Roda away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong Utrecht attack 1.29 + Roda defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Roda attack 1.38 + Jong Utrecht defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jong Utrecht scores more
36%
level
24%
Roda scores more
39%

Roda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Jong Utrecht 1–3 Roda

Roda beat Jong Utrecht 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on December 22, 2025.

The match was played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Utrecht.