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Roda vs Jong AZ — Eerste Divisie 2018

Roda
Roda
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Jong AZ
Jong AZ
12/5/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 19Parkstad Limburg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Roda51%
×Draw23%
Jong AZ26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.86
Jong AZ
1.27

Roda creates 46% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 147 away

creates per match

Roda
1.76
Jong AZ
1.27

allows per match

Roda
1.27
Jong AZ
1.97

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
Jong AZ+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Jong AZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Roda or draw
74%
Roda or Jong AZ
77%
Draw or Jong AZ
49%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
29%
Jong AZ wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
84%
Roda 2+ goals
55%
Roda 3+ goals
28%
Jong AZ 1+ goals
72%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
36%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
66%
Jong AZ (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 148 matches

Jong AZ away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.97 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.76 + Jong AZ defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.86

Jong AZ attack 1.27 + Roda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Roda scores more
51%
level
23%
Jong AZ scores more
26%

Roda at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roda vs Jong AZ

Jong AZ beat Roda 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on December 5, 2025.

The match was played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Kerkrade.