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Jong AZ vs Roda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Jong AZ
Jong AZ
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Roda
Roda
2/5/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 24AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

Jong AZ42%
×Draw24%
Roda35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jong AZ
1.66
Roda
1.50

Jong AZ creates 11% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 148 away

creates per match

Jong AZ
1.70
Roda
1.38

allows per match

Jong AZ
1.61
Roda
1.61

finishing

Jong AZ+0.00on par
Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jong AZ ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jong AZ or draw
65%
Jong AZ or Roda
76%
Draw or Roda
58%

Winning margin

Jong AZ wins by 2+
21%
Roda wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jong AZ 1+ goals
81%
Jong AZ 2+ goals
49%
Jong AZ 3+ goals
23%
Roda 1+ goals
78%
Roda 2+ goals
44%
Roda 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jong AZ (draw refunded)
54%
Roda (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jong AZ at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

Roda away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jong AZ attack 1.70 + Roda defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.66

Roda attack 1.38 + Jong AZ defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jong AZ scores more
42%
level
24%
Roda scores more
35%

Jong AZ at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jong AZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jong AZ vs Roda

Jong AZ beat Roda 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on February 5, 2024.

The match was played at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Wijdewormer.