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Rockingham City vs Sorrento — Western Australia NPL 2026

Rockingham City
Rockingham City
FT
1 – 0
Sorrento
Sorrento
4/20/2019Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 6SafeRad Stadium (Perth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rockingham City30%
×Draw22%
Sorrento48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rockingham City
1.52
Sorrento
1.96

Sorrento creates 29% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Rockingham City
1.33
Sorrento
1.84

allows per match

Rockingham City
2.07
Sorrento
1.71

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par
Sorrento+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

Sorrento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw
52%
Rockingham City or Sorrento
78%
Draw or Sorrento
70%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+
14%
Sorrento wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals
78%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
45%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
20%
Sorrento 1+ goals
86%
Sorrento 2+ goals
58%
Sorrento 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)
39%
Sorrento (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Sorrento away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.71 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 1.33 + Sorrento defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sorrento attack 1.84 + Rockingham City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rockingham City scores more
30%
level
22%
Sorrento scores more
48%

Sorrento at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sorrento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rockingham City vs Sorrento

Rockingham City beat Sorrento 1-0 in Western Australia NPL on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at SafeRad Stadium (Perth).