Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rockingham City vs Murdoch Melville — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Rockingham City
Rockingham City
FT
1 – 2
Murdoch Melville
Murdoch Melville
3/30/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 2SafeRad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rockingham City23%
×Draw20%
Murdoch Melville58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rockingham City
1.39
Murdoch Melville
2.31

Murdoch Melville creates 66% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

creates per match

Rockingham City
0.91
Murdoch Melville
2.17

allows per match

Rockingham City
2.45
Murdoch Melville
1.87

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par
Murdoch Melville+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

Murdoch Melville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw
42%
Rockingham City or Murdoch Melville
80%
Draw or Murdoch Melville
77%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+
10%
Murdoch Melville wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals
75%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
40%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
16%
Murdoch Melville 1+ goals
90%
Murdoch Melville 2+ goals
67%
Murdoch Melville 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)
28%
Murdoch Melville (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Murdoch Melville away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 0.91 + Murdoch Melville defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.39

Murdoch Melville attack 2.17 + Rockingham City defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Rockingham City scores more
23%
level
20%
Murdoch Melville scores more
58%

Murdoch Melville at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Murdoch Melville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia State League 1: Rockingham City 1–2 Murdoch Melville

Murdoch Melville beat Rockingham City 2-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at SafeRad Stadium in Perth.