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Murdoch Melville vs Rockingham City — Western Australia State League 1 2026

Murdoch Melville
Murdoch Melville
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rockingham City
Rockingham City
6/29/2024Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 13Murdoch Uni Synthetic Pitch A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Murdoch Melville54%
×Draw20%
Rockingham City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Murdoch Melville
2.42
Rockingham City
1.69

Murdoch Melville creates 43% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

creates per match

Murdoch Melville
2.10
Rockingham City
1.27

allows per match

Murdoch Melville
2.10
Rockingham City
2.73

finishing

Murdoch Melville+0.00on par
Rockingham City+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Murdoch Melville ↓

Rockingham City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Murdoch Melville or draw
73%
Murdoch Melville or Rockingham City
80%
Draw or Rockingham City
46%

Winning margin

Murdoch Melville wins by 2+
33%
Rockingham City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Murdoch Melville 1+ goals
91%
Murdoch Melville 2+ goals
69%
Murdoch Melville 3+ goals
43%
Rockingham City 1+ goals
82%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
50%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Murdoch Melville (draw refunded)
67%
Rockingham City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Murdoch Melville at home — creates 2.10, concedes 2.10 · 30 matches

Rockingham City away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Murdoch Melville attack 2.10 + Rockingham City defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.42

Rockingham City attack 1.27 + Murdoch Melville defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Murdoch Melville scores more
54%
level
20%
Rockingham City scores more
27%

Murdoch Melville at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Murdoch Melville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Murdoch Melville vs Rockingham City

Murdoch Melville beat Rockingham City 2-1 in Western Australia State League 1 on June 29, 2024.

The match was played at Murdoch Uni Synthetic Pitch A in Perth.