Rockingham City 1–3 Kingsley Westside

Rockingham City

FT

1 – 3

Kingsley Westside

6/1/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 9SafeRad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rockingham City25%

×Draw22%

Kingsley Westside53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rockingham CityExpected goals in this matchKingsley Westside

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.98

Rockingham City

1.32

Kingsley Westside

1.98

Kingsley Westside creates 50% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

0.91

creates per match

1.50

2.45

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Rockingham City

0.91

Kingsley Westside

1.50

allows per match

Rockingham City

2.45

Kingsley Westside

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par

Kingsley Westside+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

Kingsley Westside →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw

47%

Rockingham City or Kingsley Westside

78%

Draw or Kingsley Westside

75%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+

11%

Kingsley Westside wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals

73%

Rockingham City 2+ goals

38%

Rockingham City 3+ goals

15%

Kingsley Westside 1+ goals

86%

Kingsley Westside 2+ goals

59%

Kingsley Westside 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)

33%

Kingsley Westside (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Kingsley Westside away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 0.91 + Kingsley Westside defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kingsley Westside attack 1.50 + Rockingham City defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rockingham City scores more

25%

level

22%

Kingsley Westside scores more

53%

Kingsley Westside at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kingsley Westside will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff