Rockingham City vs Gwelup Croatia — Western Australia NPL 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 30+ matches
Rockingham City34%
Gwelup Croatia43%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Gwelup Croatia creates 13% more chances
Season form · 30 home / 30 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over66
- Under34
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rockingham City ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rockingham City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches
Gwelup Croatia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rockingham City attack 1.33 + Gwelup Croatia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61
Gwelup Croatia attack 1.57 + Rockingham City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.82
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Gwelup Croatia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Gwelup Croatia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Perth
Inglewood United
Floreat Athena
Balcatta
Bayswater City
Sorrento
Cockburn City
Perth Glory IIRockingham City
Armadale
ECU Joondalup
Stirling LionsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Rockingham City host Gwelup Croatia on Sunday, 18 July 2021 at 07:00. The match is part of the Western Australia NPL 2026/2027 season.
Western Australia NPL: Rockingham City 2–1 Gwelup Croatia
Rockingham City beat Gwelup Croatia 2-1 in Western Australia NPL on July 18, 2021.
The match was played at SafeRad Stadium in Perth.