Gwelup Croatia 3–1 Rockingham City: Result & Stats

Gwelup Croatia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rockingham City

5/25/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 8Croatian Sporting Complex A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gwelup Croatia53%

×Draw20%

Rockingham City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwelup CroatiaExpected goals in this matchRockingham City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.64

Gwelup Croatia

2.35

Rockingham City

1.64

Gwelup Croatia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

1.97

creates per match

1.27

2.00

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Gwelup Croatia

1.97

Rockingham City

1.27

allows per match

Gwelup Croatia

2.00

Rockingham City

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwelup Croatia+0.00on par

Rockingham City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwelup Croatia ↓

Rockingham City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Gwelup Croatia or draw

73%

Gwelup Croatia or Rockingham City

80%

Draw or Rockingham City

47%

Winning margin

Gwelup Croatia wins by 2+

33%

Rockingham City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Gwelup Croatia 1+ goals

90%

Gwelup Croatia 2+ goals

68%

Gwelup Croatia 3+ goals

41%

Rockingham City 1+ goals

81%

Rockingham City 2+ goals

49%

Rockingham City 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Gwelup Croatia (draw refunded)

66%

Rockingham City (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwelup Croatia at home — creates 1.97, concedes 2.00 · 31 matches

Rockingham City away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwelup Croatia attack 1.97 + Rockingham City defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.35

Rockingham City attack 1.27 + Gwelup Croatia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gwelup Croatia scores more

53%

level

20%

Rockingham City scores more

27%

Gwelup Croatia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gwelup Croatia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff