Rockingham City 2–3 Gosnells City: Result & Stats

Rockingham City

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Gosnells City

7/13/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 15SafeRad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rockingham City37%

×Draw23%

Gosnells City40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rockingham CityExpected goals in this matchGosnells City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.68

Rockingham City

1.59

Gosnells City

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

0.91

creates per match

0.91

2.45

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Rockingham City

0.91

Gosnells City

0.91

allows per match

Rockingham City

2.45

Gosnells City

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par

Gosnells City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

Gosnells City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw

60%

Rockingham City or Gosnells City

77%

Draw or Gosnells City

63%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+

18%

Gosnells City wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals

80%

Rockingham City 2+ goals

47%

Rockingham City 3+ goals

21%

Gosnells City 1+ goals

81%

Gosnells City 2+ goals

50%

Gosnells City 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)

48%

Gosnells City (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Gosnells City away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 0.91 + Gosnells City defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gosnells City attack 0.91 + Rockingham City defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rockingham City scores more

37%

level

23%

Gosnells City scores more

40%

Gosnells City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gosnells City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff