Gosnells City 1–1 Rockingham City: Result & Stats

Gosnells City

FT

1 – 1

Rockingham City

4/13/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 4Walter Padbury Reserve A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Gosnells City42%

×Draw21%

Rockingham City37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gosnells CityExpected goals in this matchRockingham City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.84

Gosnells City

1.98

Rockingham City

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

1.23

creates per match

1.27

2.41

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Gosnells City

1.23

Rockingham City

1.27

allows per match

Gosnells City

2.41

Rockingham City

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gosnells City+0.00on par

Rockingham City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gosnells City ↓

Rockingham City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Gosnells City or draw

63%

Gosnells City or Rockingham City

79%

Draw or Rockingham City

58%

Winning margin

Gosnells City wins by 2+

23%

Rockingham City wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Gosnells City 1+ goals

86%

Gosnells City 2+ goals

59%

Gosnells City 3+ goals

31%

Rockingham City 1+ goals

84%

Rockingham City 2+ goals

55%

Rockingham City 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Gosnells City (draw refunded)

53%

Rockingham City (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gosnells City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 2.41 · 22 matches

Rockingham City away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gosnells City attack 1.23 + Rockingham City defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.98

Rockingham City attack 1.27 + Gosnells City defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gosnells City scores more

42%

level

21%

Rockingham City scores more

37%

Gosnells City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gosnells City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff