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Rockingham City vs Cockburn City — Western Australia NPL 2026

Rockingham City
Rockingham City
FT
0 – 0
Cockburn City
Cockburn City
8/1/2020Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 5SafeRad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rockingham City36%
×Draw23%
Cockburn City41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rockingham City
1.56
Cockburn City
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rockingham City
1.33
Cockburn City
1.31

allows per match

Rockingham City
2.07
Cockburn City
1.80

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par
Cockburn City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

Cockburn City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw
59%
Rockingham City or Cockburn City
77%
Draw or Cockburn City
64%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+
17%
Cockburn City wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals
79%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
46%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
21%
Cockburn City 1+ goals
82%
Cockburn City 2+ goals
50%
Cockburn City 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)
46%
Cockburn City (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Cockburn City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 1.33 + Cockburn City defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Cockburn City attack 1.31 + Rockingham City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rockingham City scores more
36%
level
23%
Cockburn City scores more
41%

Cockburn City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cockburn City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rockingham City vs Cockburn City

Rockingham City and Cockburn City drew 0-0 in Western Australia NPL on August 1, 2020.

The match was played at SafeRad Stadium in Perth.