Cockburn City 1–2 Rockingham City: Result & Stats

Cockburn City

FT

1 – 2

Rockingham City

3/23/2024

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 1Dalmatinac Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cockburn City49%

×Draw21%

Rockingham City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cockburn CityExpected goals in this matchRockingham City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.56

Cockburn City

2.05

Rockingham City

1.56

Cockburn City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

1.38

creates per match

1.27

1.86

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Cockburn City

1.38

Rockingham City

1.27

allows per match

Cockburn City

1.86

Rockingham City

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cockburn City+0.00on par

Rockingham City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cockburn City ↓

Rockingham City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Cockburn City or draw

70%

Cockburn City or Rockingham City

79%

Draw or Rockingham City

51%

Winning margin

Cockburn City wins by 2+

28%

Rockingham City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cockburn City 1+ goals

87%

Cockburn City 2+ goals

61%

Cockburn City 3+ goals

33%

Rockingham City 1+ goals

79%

Rockingham City 2+ goals

46%

Rockingham City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Cockburn City (draw refunded)

62%

Rockingham City (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cockburn City at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

Rockingham City away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cockburn City attack 1.38 + Rockingham City defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.05

Rockingham City attack 1.27 + Cockburn City defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cockburn City scores more

49%

level

21%

Rockingham City scores more

30%

Cockburn City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cockburn City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff