Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rockingham City vs Bayswater City — Western Australia NPL 2026

Rockingham City
Rockingham City
FT
0 – 1
Bayswater City
Bayswater City
6/12/2021Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 12SafeRad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rockingham City28%
×Draw22%
Bayswater City50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rockingham City
1.50
Bayswater City
2.04

Bayswater City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 83 away

creates per match

Rockingham City
1.33
Bayswater City
2.02

allows per match

Rockingham City
2.07
Bayswater City
1.66

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par
Bayswater City+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

Bayswater City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw
50%
Rockingham City or Bayswater City
78%
Draw or Bayswater City
72%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+
13%
Bayswater City wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals
78%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
44%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
19%
Bayswater City 1+ goals
87%
Bayswater City 2+ goals
60%
Bayswater City 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)
36%
Bayswater City (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Bayswater City away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.66 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 1.33 + Bayswater City defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bayswater City attack 2.02 + Rockingham City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rockingham City scores more
28%
level
22%
Bayswater City scores more
50%

Bayswater City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bayswater City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia NPL: Rockingham City 0–1 Bayswater City

Bayswater City beat Rockingham City 1-0 in Western Australia NPL on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at SafeRad Stadium in Perth.