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Bayswater City vs Rockingham City — Western Australia NPL 2026

Bayswater City
Bayswater City
FT
3 – 0
Rockingham City
Rockingham City
3/20/2021Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 1Frank Drago Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bayswater City65%
×Draw18%
Rockingham City18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayswater City
2.63
Rockingham City
1.32

Bayswater City creates 99% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 31 away

creates per match

Bayswater City
2.25
Rockingham City
1.03

allows per match

Bayswater City
1.61
Rockingham City
3.00

finishing

Bayswater City+0.00on par
Rockingham City+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayswater City ↓

Rockingham City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Bayswater City or draw
82%
Bayswater City or Rockingham City
82%
Draw or Rockingham City
35%

Winning margin

Bayswater City wins by 2+
44%
Rockingham City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bayswater City 1+ goals
93%
Bayswater City 2+ goals
73%
Bayswater City 3+ goals
48%
Rockingham City 1+ goals
73%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
38%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bayswater City (draw refunded)
79%
Rockingham City (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayswater City at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.61 · 85 matches

Rockingham City away — creates 1.03, concedes 3.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayswater City attack 2.25 + Rockingham City defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.63

Rockingham City attack 1.03 + Bayswater City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bayswater City scores more
65%
level
18%
Rockingham City scores more
18%

Bayswater City at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bayswater City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia NPL: Bayswater City 3–0 Rockingham City

Bayswater City beat Rockingham City 3-0 in Western Australia NPL on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Frank Drago Reserve in Perth.