Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rockingham City vs Armadale — Western Australia NPL 2026

Rockingham City
Rockingham City
FT
1 – 1
Armadale
Armadale
4/10/2021Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 4SafeRad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rockingham City35%
×Draw22%
Armadale43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rockingham City
1.72
Armadale
1.92

Armadale creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 83 away

creates per match

Rockingham City
1.33
Armadale
1.78

allows per match

Rockingham City
2.07
Armadale
2.11

finishing

Rockingham City+0.00on par
Armadale+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockingham City ↓

Armadale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Rockingham City or draw
57%
Rockingham City or Armadale
78%
Draw or Armadale
65%

Winning margin

Rockingham City wins by 2+
18%
Armadale wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Rockingham City 1+ goals
82%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
51%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
25%
Armadale 1+ goals
85%
Armadale 2+ goals
57%
Armadale 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Rockingham City (draw refunded)
45%
Armadale (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockingham City at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.07 · 30 matches

Armadale away — creates 1.78, concedes 2.11 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockingham City attack 1.33 + Armadale defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.72

Armadale attack 1.78 + Rockingham City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rockingham City scores more
35%
level
22%
Armadale scores more
43%

Armadale at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Armadale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rockingham City vs Armadale

Rockingham City and Armadale drew 1-1 in Western Australia NPL on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at SafeRad Stadium in Perth.