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Armadale vs Rockingham City — Western Australia NPL 2026

Armadale
Armadale
FT
3 – 0
Rockingham City
Rockingham City
3/23/2019Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 2Alfred Skeet Oval A (Perth)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Armadale55%
×Draw19%
Rockingham City25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Armadale
2.49
Rockingham City
1.66

Armadale creates 50% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 31 away

creates per match

Armadale
1.98
Rockingham City
1.03

allows per match

Armadale
2.29
Rockingham City
3.00

finishing

Armadale+0.00on par
Rockingham City+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armadale ↓

Rockingham City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Armadale or draw
75%
Armadale or Rockingham City
81%
Draw or Rockingham City
45%

Winning margin

Armadale wins by 2+
35%
Rockingham City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Armadale 1+ goals
92%
Armadale 2+ goals
71%
Armadale 3+ goals
45%
Rockingham City 1+ goals
81%
Rockingham City 2+ goals
49%
Rockingham City 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Armadale (draw refunded)
69%
Rockingham City (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armadale at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.29 · 83 matches

Rockingham City away — creates 1.03, concedes 3.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armadale attack 1.98 + Rockingham City defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.49

Rockingham City attack 1.03 + Armadale defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Armadale scores more
55%
level
19%
Rockingham City scores more
25%

Armadale at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Armadale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia NPL: Armadale 3–0 Rockingham City

Armadale beat Rockingham City 3-0 in Western Australia NPL on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Alfred Skeet Oval A (Perth).