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Rockdale City Suns vs Marconi Stallions — New South Wales NPL 2026

Rockdale City Suns
Rockdale City Suns
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Marconi Stallions
Marconi Stallions
2/15/2026New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 2Rockdale Ilinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Rockdale City Suns37%
×Draw24%
Marconi Stallions39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rockdale City Suns
1.51
Marconi Stallions
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 99 home / 95 away

creates per match

Rockdale City Suns
2.02
Marconi Stallions
1.67

allows per match

Rockdale City Suns
1.42
Marconi Stallions
1.00

finishing

Rockdale City Suns+0.00on par
Marconi Stallions+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockdale City Suns ↓

Marconi Stallions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rockdale City Suns or draw
61%
Rockdale City Suns or Marconi Stallions
76%
Draw or Marconi Stallions
63%

Winning margin

Rockdale City Suns wins by 2+
18%
Marconi Stallions wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rockdale City Suns 1+ goals
78%
Rockdale City Suns 2+ goals
44%
Rockdale City Suns 3+ goals
19%
Marconi Stallions 1+ goals
79%
Marconi Stallions 2+ goals
45%
Marconi Stallions 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rockdale City Suns (draw refunded)
49%
Marconi Stallions (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockdale City Suns at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.42 · 99 matches

Marconi Stallions away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockdale City Suns attack 2.02 + Marconi Stallions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.51

Marconi Stallions attack 1.67 + Rockdale City Suns defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rockdale City Suns scores more
37%
level
24%
Marconi Stallions scores more
39%

Marconi Stallions at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Marconi Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rockdale City Suns vs Marconi Stallions

Marconi Stallions beat Rockdale City Suns 4-1 in New South Wales NPL on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Rockdale Ilinden Sports Centre in Sydney.