Marconi Stallions 0–1 Rockdale City Suns

Marconi Stallions

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rockdale City Suns

6/8/2025

New South Wales NPL · Round 18Marconi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Marconi Stallions45%

×Draw23%

Rockdale City Suns32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marconi StallionsExpected goals in this matchRockdale City Suns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.50

Marconi Stallions

1.83

Rockdale City Suns

1.50

Marconi Stallions creates 22% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 94 away

2.16

creates per match

1.73

1.28

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Marconi Stallions

2.16

Rockdale City Suns

1.73

allows per match

Marconi Stallions

1.28

Rockdale City Suns

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marconi Stallions+0.00on par

Rockdale City Suns+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marconi Stallions ↓

Rockdale City Suns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Marconi Stallions or draw

68%

Marconi Stallions or Rockdale City Suns

77%

Draw or Rockdale City Suns

55%

Winning margin

Marconi Stallions wins by 2+

25%

Rockdale City Suns wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Marconi Stallions 1+ goals

84%

Marconi Stallions 2+ goals

54%

Marconi Stallions 3+ goals

28%

Rockdale City Suns 1+ goals

78%

Rockdale City Suns 2+ goals

44%

Rockdale City Suns 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Marconi Stallions (draw refunded)

59%

Rockdale City Suns (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marconi Stallions at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

Rockdale City Suns away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marconi Stallions attack 2.16 + Rockdale City Suns defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Rockdale City Suns attack 1.73 + Marconi Stallions defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Marconi Stallions scores more

45%

level

23%

Rockdale City Suns scores more

32%

Marconi Stallions at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Marconi Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff