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Rockdale City Suns vs Central Coast II — New South Wales NPL 2026

Rockdale City Suns
Rockdale City Suns
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Central Coast II
Central Coast II
H. Elliott 81'
B. Ovens 74'
A. Urosevski 61', 43'
B. Brandtman 50'
8/25/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 30Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Rockdale City Suns57%
×Draw21%
Central Coast II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rockdale City Suns
2.09
Central Coast II
1.21

Rockdale City Suns creates 73% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 46 away

creates per match

Rockdale City Suns
2.02
Central Coast II
1.00

allows per match

Rockdale City Suns
1.42
Central Coast II
2.17

finishing

Rockdale City Suns+0.00on par
Central Coast II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rockdale City Suns ↓

Central Coast II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Rockdale City Suns or draw
78%
Rockdale City Suns or Central Coast II
79%
Draw or Central Coast II
43%

Winning margin

Rockdale City Suns wins by 2+
35%
Central Coast II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rockdale City Suns 1+ goals
88%
Rockdale City Suns 2+ goals
62%
Rockdale City Suns 3+ goals
34%
Central Coast II 1+ goals
70%
Central Coast II 2+ goals
34%
Central Coast II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rockdale City Suns (draw refunded)
73%
Central Coast II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rockdale City Suns at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.42 · 99 matches

Central Coast II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rockdale City Suns attack 2.02 + Central Coast II defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.09

Central Coast II attack 1.00 + Rockdale City Suns defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rockdale City Suns scores more
57%
level
21%
Central Coast II scores more
22%

Rockdale City Suns at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rockdale City Suns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
A. Urosevski
50'
B. Brandtman
61'
A. Urosevski
74'
B. Ovens
81'
H. Elliott

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rockdale City Suns vs Central Coast II

Rockdale City Suns beat Central Coast II 4-1 in New South Wales NPL on August 25, 2024.

Goals: A. Urosevski (43', 61'), B. Brandtman (50'), B. Ovens (74'), H. Elliott (81').

The match was played at Illinden Sports Centre in Sydney.