Central Coast II 1–2 Rockdale City Suns

Central Coast II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Rockdale City Suns

B. Brandtman 10'

A. Uroševski 87'

D. Collins 78'

8/6/2023

New South Wales NPL · Round 27Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Central Coast II33%

×Draw23%

Rockdale City Suns44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast IIExpected goals in this matchRockdale City Suns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.78

Central Coast II

1.52

Rockdale City Suns

1.78

Rockdale City Suns creates 17% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 94 away

1.53

creates per match

1.73

1.83

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Central Coast II

1.53

Rockdale City Suns

1.73

allows per match

Central Coast II

1.83

Rockdale City Suns

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast II+0.00on par

Rockdale City Suns+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast II ↓

Rockdale City Suns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Central Coast II or draw

56%

Central Coast II or Rockdale City Suns

77%

Draw or Rockdale City Suns

67%

Winning margin

Central Coast II wins by 2+

16%

Rockdale City Suns wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Central Coast II 1+ goals

78%

Central Coast II 2+ goals

45%

Central Coast II 3+ goals

20%

Rockdale City Suns 1+ goals

83%

Rockdale City Suns 2+ goals

53%

Rockdale City Suns 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Central Coast II (draw refunded)

43%

Rockdale City Suns (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

Rockdale City Suns away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast II attack 1.53 + Rockdale City Suns defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rockdale City Suns attack 1.73 + Central Coast II defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Central Coast II scores more

33%

level

23%

Rockdale City Suns scores more

44%

Rockdale City Suns at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rockdale City Suns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

B. Brandtman

21'

J. Casella← M. Cordier

59'

M. Kasalovic← D. Susovic

59'

J. Segreto← T. Edmonds

71'

A. Milicevic← L. Oresti

71'

Z. Waddell← M. Middleby

78'

D. Collins↳ B. Cholakian

83'

B. Wass← I. Ramsay

87'

A. Uroševski↳ B. Antoniou

90+2'

P. Kalamvokis← B. Cholakian

Central

Rockdale

20

Devenish-

2

⚽

Collins

14

Sorge

3

Griffiths

66

▼

Cordier

4

Ujdur

11

Constable

10

A

▼

Cholakian

17

▼

Ramsay

7

⚽

Uroševski

9

A

31

20

24

22

25

14

▼

Oresti

39

▼

Susovic

23

Pizio

11

⚽

Brandtman

26

▼

Middleby

32

▼

Edmonds

Manager: Abbas Saad

59'▲M. Kasalovic←▼D. Susovic

59'▲J. Segreto←▼T. Edmonds

71'▲A. Milicevic←▼L. Oresti

71'▲Z. Waddell←▼M. Middleby

Central Coast II substitutes

21Kasalovic15Segreto19Milicevic36Waddell30Alvarez27Menham

Manager: P. Dee

21'▲J. Casella←▼M. Cordier

83'▲B. Wass←▼I. Ramsay

90+2'▲P. Kalamvokis←▼B. Cholakian

Rockdale City Suns substitutes

23Casella42Wass33Kalamvokis26Baron34Cakovski30Brown