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Röchling Völklingen vs Jägersburg — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Röchling Völklingen
Röchling Völklingen
CANC
14:00
Jägersburg
Jägersburg
2/13/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 18Hermann-Neuberger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Röchling Völklingen50%
×Draw21%
Jägersburg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Röchling Völklingen
2.11
Jägersburg
1.58

Röchling Völklingen creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

Röchling Völklingen
1.38
Jägersburg
1.48

allows per match

Röchling Völklingen
1.69
Jägersburg
2.84

finishing

Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par
Jägersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Röchling Völklingen ↓

Jägersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Röchling Völklingen or draw
71%
Röchling Völklingen or Jägersburg
79%
Draw or Jägersburg
50%

Winning margin

Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+
29%
Jägersburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals
88%
Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals
62%
Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals
35%
Jägersburg 1+ goals
79%
Jägersburg 2+ goals
47%
Jägersburg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)
63%
Jägersburg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Röchling Völklingen at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Jägersburg away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.38 + Jägersburg defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.11

Jägersburg attack 1.48 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Röchling Völklingen scores more
50%
level
21%
Jägersburg scores more
29%

Röchling Völklingen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Röchling Völklingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Röchling Völklingen face Jägersburg (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar returns with Röchling Völklingen hosting Jägersburg. Match starts February 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Röchling Völklingen host Jägersburg at Hermann-Neuberger-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.