Jägersburg 2–0 Röchling Völklingen: Result & Stats

Jägersburg

FT

2 – 0

Röchling Völklingen

10/10/2020

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 7Alois-Omlor-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jägersburg41%

×Draw23%

Röchling Völklingen37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JägersburgExpected goals in this matchRöchling Völklingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.67

Jägersburg

1.77

Röchling Völklingen

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

1.62

creates per match

1.33

2.00

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Jägersburg

1.62

Röchling Völklingen

1.33

allows per match

Jägersburg

2.00

Röchling Völklingen

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jägersburg+0.00on par

Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jägersburg ↓

Röchling Völklingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Jägersburg or draw

63%

Jägersburg or Röchling Völklingen

77%

Draw or Röchling Völklingen

59%

Winning margin

Jägersburg wins by 2+

21%

Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Jägersburg 1+ goals

83%

Jägersburg 2+ goals

53%

Jägersburg 3+ goals

26%

Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals

81%

Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals

50%

Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Jägersburg (draw refunded)

53%

Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jägersburg at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

Röchling Völklingen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jägersburg attack 1.62 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.33 + Jägersburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jägersburg scores more

41%

level

23%

Röchling Völklingen scores more

37%

Jägersburg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jägersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff