Röchling Völklingen 3–2 Hertha Wiesbach

Röchling Völklingen

FT

3 – 2

Hertha Wiesbach

9/8/2020

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 2Hermann-Neuberger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Röchling Völklingen39%

×Draw22%

Hertha Wiesbach39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Röchling VölklingenExpected goals in this matchHertha Wiesbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.82

Röchling Völklingen

1.84

Hertha Wiesbach

1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 42 away

1.38

creates per match

1.95

1.69

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Röchling Völklingen

1.38

Hertha Wiesbach

1.95

allows per match

Röchling Völklingen

1.69

Hertha Wiesbach

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par

Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Röchling Völklingen ↓

Hertha Wiesbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Röchling Völklingen or draw

61%

Röchling Völklingen or Hertha Wiesbach

78%

Draw or Hertha Wiesbach

61%

Winning margin

Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+

21%

Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals

84%

Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals

55%

Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals

28%

Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals

84%

Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals

54%

Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)

51%

Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Röchling Völklingen at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Hertha Wiesbach away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.38 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.84

Hertha Wiesbach attack 1.95 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Röchling Völklingen scores more

39%

level

22%

Hertha Wiesbach scores more

39%

Röchling Völklingen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Röchling Völklingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff