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Hertha Wiesbach vs Röchling Völklingen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Hertha Wiesbach
Hertha Wiesbach
CANC
16:30
Röchling Völklingen
Röchling Völklingen
11/21/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 13ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hertha Wiesbach50%
×Draw21%
Röchling Völklingen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Wiesbach
2.10
Röchling Völklingen
1.57

Hertha Wiesbach creates 34% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hertha Wiesbach
2.28
Röchling Völklingen
1.33

allows per match

Hertha Wiesbach
1.81
Röchling Völklingen
1.93

finishing

Hertha Wiesbach+0.00on par
Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Wiesbach ↓

Röchling Völklingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hertha Wiesbach or draw
71%
Hertha Wiesbach or Röchling Völklingen
79%
Draw or Röchling Völklingen
50%

Winning margin

Hertha Wiesbach wins by 2+
29%
Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hertha Wiesbach 1+ goals
88%
Hertha Wiesbach 2+ goals
62%
Hertha Wiesbach 3+ goals
35%
Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals
79%
Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals
46%
Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hertha Wiesbach (draw refunded)
63%
Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Wiesbach at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.81 · 43 matches

Röchling Völklingen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Wiesbach attack 2.28 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.10

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.33 + Hertha Wiesbach defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hertha Wiesbach scores more
50%
level
21%
Röchling Völklingen scores more
29%

Hertha Wiesbach at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hertha Wiesbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hertha Wiesbach face Röchling Völklingen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar returns with Hertha Wiesbach hosting Röchling Völklingen. Match starts November 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hertha Wiesbach host Röchling Völklingen at ProWin Stadion am Wallenborn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.