Röchling Völklingen vs Eppelborn

Röchling Völklingen

CANC

14:00

Eppelborn

11/7/2020

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 11Hermann-Neuberger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Röchling Völklingen60%

×Draw19%

Eppelborn21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Röchling VölklingenExpected goals in this matchEppelborn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.32

Röchling Völklingen

2.34

Eppelborn

1.32

Röchling Völklingen creates 77% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 48 away

1.38

creates per match

0.96

1.69

allows per match

3.31

creates per match

Röchling Völklingen

1.38

Eppelborn

0.96

allows per match

Röchling Völklingen

1.69

Eppelborn

3.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par

Eppelborn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Röchling Völklingen ↓

Eppelborn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Röchling Völklingen or draw

79%

Röchling Völklingen or Eppelborn

81%

Draw or Eppelborn

40%

Winning margin

Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+

38%

Eppelborn wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals

90%

Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals

67%

Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals

41%

Eppelborn 1+ goals

73%

Eppelborn 2+ goals

38%

Eppelborn 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)

74%

Eppelborn (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Röchling Völklingen at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Eppelborn away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.31 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.38 + Eppelborn defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.34

Eppelborn attack 0.96 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Röchling Völklingen scores more

60%

level

19%

Eppelborn scores more

21%

Röchling Völklingen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Röchling Völklingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff