Eppelborn vs Röchling Völklingen

Eppelborn

CANC

14:30

Röchling Völklingen

3/13/2021

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 22Illtalstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Eppelborn35%

×Draw21%

Röchling Völklingen44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EppelbornExpected goals in this matchRöchling Völklingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.00

Eppelborn

1.77

Röchling Völklingen

2.00

Röchling Völklingen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 15 away

1.62

creates per match

1.33

2.66

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Eppelborn

1.62

Röchling Völklingen

1.33

allows per match

Eppelborn

2.66

Röchling Völklingen

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eppelborn+0.00on par

Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eppelborn ↓

Röchling Völklingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Eppelborn or draw

56%

Eppelborn or Röchling Völklingen

79%

Draw or Röchling Völklingen

65%

Winning margin

Eppelborn wins by 2+

18%

Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Eppelborn 1+ goals

83%

Eppelborn 2+ goals

53%

Eppelborn 3+ goals

26%

Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals

86%

Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals

59%

Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Eppelborn (draw refunded)

44%

Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eppelborn at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.66 · 50 matches

Röchling Völklingen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eppelborn attack 1.62 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.33 + Eppelborn defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eppelborn scores more

35%

level

21%

Röchling Völklingen scores more

44%

Röchling Völklingen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Röchling Völklingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff