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Röchling Völklingen vs Elversberg II — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Röchling Völklingen
Röchling Völklingen
FT
0 – 1
Elversberg II
Elversberg II
9/13/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 3Hermann-Neuberger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Röchling Völklingen50%
×Draw22%
Elversberg II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Röchling Völklingen
1.94
Elversberg II
1.39

Röchling Völklingen creates 40% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 26 away

creates per match

Röchling Völklingen
1.38
Elversberg II
1.08

allows per match

Röchling Völklingen
1.69
Elversberg II
2.50

finishing

Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par
Elversberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Röchling Völklingen ↓

Elversberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Röchling Völklingen or draw
72%
Röchling Völklingen or Elversberg II
78%
Draw or Elversberg II
50%

Winning margin

Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+
29%
Elversberg II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals
86%
Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals
58%
Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals
30%
Elversberg II 1+ goals
75%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
40%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)
65%
Elversberg II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Röchling Völklingen at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Elversberg II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.38 + Elversberg II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Elversberg II attack 1.08 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Röchling Völklingen scores more
50%
level
22%
Elversberg II scores more
28%

Röchling Völklingen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Röchling Völklingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Röchling Völklingen vs Elversberg II

Elversberg II beat Röchling Völklingen 1-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Hermann-Neuberger-Stadion in Völklingen.