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Elversberg II vs Röchling Völklingen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Elversberg II
Elversberg II
CANC
14:00
Röchling Völklingen
Röchling Völklingen
11/29/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 14Elversberg Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elversberg II35%
×Draw22%
Röchling Völklingen43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elversberg II
1.63
Röchling Völklingen
1.84

Röchling Völklingen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

creates per match

Elversberg II
1.32
Röchling Völklingen
1.33

allows per match

Elversberg II
2.36
Röchling Völklingen
1.93

finishing

Elversberg II+0.00on par
Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elversberg II ↓

Röchling Völklingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Elversberg II or draw
57%
Elversberg II or Röchling Völklingen
78%
Draw or Röchling Völklingen
65%

Winning margin

Elversberg II wins by 2+
17%
Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Elversberg II 1+ goals
80%
Elversberg II 2+ goals
48%
Elversberg II 3+ goals
22%
Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals
84%
Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals
55%
Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Elversberg II (draw refunded)
45%
Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elversberg II at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.36 · 25 matches

Röchling Völklingen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elversberg II attack 1.32 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.33 + Elversberg II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Elversberg II scores more
35%
level
22%
Röchling Völklingen scores more
43%

Röchling Völklingen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Röchling Völklingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elversberg II face Röchling Völklingen (Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar)

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar returns with Elversberg II hosting Röchling Völklingen. Match starts November 29, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Elversberg II host Röchling Völklingen at Elversberg Kunstrasen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.