Röchling Völklingen vs Dudenhofen

Röchling Völklingen

CANC

14:00

Dudenhofen

11/14/2020

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 12Hermann-Neuberger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Röchling Völklingen37%

×Draw23%

Dudenhofen40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Röchling VölklingenExpected goals in this matchDudenhofen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.69

Röchling Völklingen

1.61

Dudenhofen

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 61 away

1.38

creates per match

1.70

1.69

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Röchling Völklingen

1.38

Dudenhofen

1.70

allows per match

Röchling Völklingen

1.69

Dudenhofen

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par

Dudenhofen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Röchling Völklingen ↓

Dudenhofen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Röchling Völklingen or draw

60%

Röchling Völklingen or Dudenhofen

77%

Draw or Dudenhofen

63%

Winning margin

Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+

18%

Dudenhofen wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals

80%

Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals

48%

Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals

22%

Dudenhofen 1+ goals

82%

Dudenhofen 2+ goals

50%

Dudenhofen 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)

48%

Dudenhofen (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Röchling Völklingen at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Dudenhofen away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.84 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.38 + Dudenhofen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dudenhofen attack 1.70 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Röchling Völklingen scores more

37%

level

23%

Dudenhofen scores more

40%

Dudenhofen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dudenhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff