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Dudenhofen vs Röchling Völklingen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Dudenhofen
Dudenhofen
FT
0 – 2
Röchling Völklingen
Röchling Völklingen
9/5/2020Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 1Dudenhofen Rasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dudenhofen46%
×Draw23%
Röchling Völklingen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dudenhofen
1.85
Röchling Völklingen
1.50

Dudenhofen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dudenhofen
1.77
Röchling Völklingen
1.33

allows per match

Dudenhofen
1.68
Röchling Völklingen
1.93

finishing

Dudenhofen+0.00on par
Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dudenhofen ↓

Röchling Völklingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dudenhofen or draw
69%
Dudenhofen or Röchling Völklingen
77%
Draw or Röchling Völklingen
54%

Winning margin

Dudenhofen wins by 2+
25%
Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dudenhofen 1+ goals
84%
Dudenhofen 2+ goals
55%
Dudenhofen 3+ goals
28%
Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals
78%
Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals
44%
Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dudenhofen (draw refunded)
59%
Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dudenhofen at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

Röchling Völklingen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dudenhofen attack 1.77 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.85

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.33 + Dudenhofen defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dudenhofen scores more
46%
level
23%
Röchling Völklingen scores more
31%

Dudenhofen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dudenhofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Dudenhofen 0–2 Röchling Völklingen

Röchling Völklingen beat Dudenhofen 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Dudenhofen Rasen in Dudenhofen.