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Röchling Völklingen vs Arminia Ludwigshafen — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Röchling Völklingen
Röchling Völklingen
CANC
14:30
Arminia Ludwigshafen
Arminia Ludwigshafen
3/6/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 21Hermann-Neuberger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Röchling Völklingen39%
×Draw22%
Arminia Ludwigshafen39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Röchling Völklingen
1.77
Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 79 away

creates per match

Röchling Völklingen
1.38
Arminia Ludwigshafen
1.87

allows per match

Röchling Völklingen
1.69
Arminia Ludwigshafen
2.16

finishing

Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par
Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Röchling Völklingen ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Röchling Völklingen or draw
61%
Röchling Völklingen or Arminia Ludwigshafen
78%
Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen
61%

Winning margin

Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+
20%
Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals
83%
Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals
53%
Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals
26%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals
83%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals
53%
Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)
50%
Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Röchling Völklingen at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.38 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.77

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.87 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Röchling Völklingen scores more
39%
level
22%
Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more
39%

Röchling Völklingen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Röchling Völklingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Röchling Völklingen host Arminia Ludwigshafen

March 6, 2021: Röchling Völklingen take on Arminia Ludwigshafen in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Röchling Völklingen host Arminia Ludwigshafen at Hermann-Neuberger-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.