Arminia Ludwigshafen vs Röchling Völklingen

Arminia Ludwigshafen

CANC

13:30

Röchling Völklingen

10/31/2020

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 10Altrip Rasen 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen45%

×Draw22%

Röchling Völklingen32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia LudwigshafenExpected goals in this matchRöchling Völklingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.56

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.88

Röchling Völklingen

1.56

Arminia Ludwigshafen creates 21% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 15 away

1.83

creates per match

1.33

1.79

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.83

Röchling Völklingen

1.33

allows per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.79

Röchling Völklingen

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Ludwigshafen ↓

Röchling Völklingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Arminia Ludwigshafen or draw

68%

Arminia Ludwigshafen or Röchling Völklingen

78%

Draw or Röchling Völklingen

55%

Winning margin

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+

25%

Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals

85%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals

56%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals

29%

Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals

79%

Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals

46%

Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)

58%

Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Ludwigshafen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.79 · 78 matches

Röchling Völklingen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.83 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.88

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.33 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more

45%

level

22%

Röchling Völklingen scores more

32%

Arminia Ludwigshafen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arminia Ludwigshafen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff