Rochefort 3–1 Albert Quévy-Mons: Result & Stats

Rochefort

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Albert Quévy-Mons

G. Perseo 23', 5'

N. Gosselain 2'

Y. Bentayeb 30'

2/8/2026

League #487 · ACFF - 21Parc des Roches

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Rochefort21%

×Draw22%

Albert Quévy-Mons56%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochefortExpected goals in this matchAlbert Quévy-Mons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.89

Rochefort

1.08

Albert Quévy-Mons

1.89

Albert Quévy-Mons creates 75% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.17

creates per match

1.78

2.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Rochefort

1.17

Albert Quévy-Mons

1.78

allows per match

Rochefort

2.00

Albert Quévy-Mons

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochefort+0.00on par

Albert Quévy-Mons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochefort ↓

Albert Quévy-Mons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rochefort or draw

44%

Rochefort or Albert Quévy-Mons

78%

Draw or Albert Quévy-Mons

79%

Winning margin

Rochefort wins by 2+

8%

Albert Quévy-Mons wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Rochefort 1+ goals

66%

Rochefort 2+ goals

29%

Rochefort 3+ goals

10%

Albert Quévy-Mons 1+ goals

85%

Albert Quévy-Mons 2+ goals

56%

Albert Quévy-Mons 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Rochefort (draw refunded)

28%

Albert Quévy-Mons (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochefort at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Albert Quévy-Mons away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochefort attack 1.17 + Albert Quévy-Mons defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Albert Quévy-Mons attack 1.78 + Rochefort defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rochefort scores more

21%

level

22%

Albert Quévy-Mons scores more

56%

Albert Quévy-Mons at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Albert Quévy-Mons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

5'

23'

30'

82'

M. Vandermeulen

Rochefort

Albert

Manager: J. Rentmeister

Manager: L. Nasca