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Albert Quévy-Mons vs Rochefort — League #487 2026

Albert Quévy-Mons
Albert Quévy-Mons
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rochefort
Rochefort
A. De Bodt 82'
Y. Bentayeb 66', 20'
D. De Belder 57'
L. Brogno 45'
8/30/2025League #487League #487 · ACFF - 2Stade Charles Tondreau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Albert Quévy-Mons78%
×Draw15%
Rochefort8%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albert Quévy-Mons
2.54
Rochefort
0.67

Albert Quévy-Mons creates 279% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Albert Quévy-Mons
2.67
Rochefort
1.00

allows per match

Albert Quévy-Mons
0.33
Rochefort
2.40

finishing

Albert Quévy-Mons+0.00on par
Rochefort+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albert Quévy-Mons ↓

Rochefort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Albert Quévy-Mons or draw
92%
Albert Quévy-Mons or Rochefort
85%
Draw or Rochefort
22%

Winning margin

Albert Quévy-Mons wins by 2+
55%
Rochefort wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Albert Quévy-Mons 1+ goals
92%
Albert Quévy-Mons 2+ goals
72%
Albert Quévy-Mons 3+ goals
46%
Rochefort 1+ goals
49%
Rochefort 2+ goals
15%
Rochefort 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Albert Quévy-Mons (draw refunded)
91%
Rochefort (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albert Quévy-Mons at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Rochefort away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albert Quévy-Mons attack 2.67 + Rochefort defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.54

Rochefort attack 1.00 + Albert Quévy-Mons defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Albert Quévy-Mons scores more
78%
level
15%
Rochefort scores more
8%

Albert Quévy-Mons at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Albert Quévy-Mons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Y. Bentayeb
30'
M. Cornet
45'
L. Brogno
57'
D. De Belder
66'
Y. Bentayeb
82'
A. De Bodt
Albert
Rochefort
L. Nasca
Manager: L. Nasca
J. Rentmeister
Manager: J. Rentmeister

League #487: Albert Quévy-Mons 5–0 Rochefort

Albert Quévy-Mons beat Rochefort 5-0 in League #487 on August 30, 2025.

Goals: Y. Bentayeb (20', 66'), L. Brogno (45'), D. De Belder (57'), A. De Bodt (82').

The match was played at Stade Charles Tondreau in Mons.