Rochedale Rovers 2–2 Redlands United

Rochedale Rovers

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Redlands United

2/24/2024

Queensland NPL · Round 1OldMac Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Rochedale Rovers43%

×Draw22%

Redlands United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rochedale RoversExpected goals in this matchRedlands United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.74

Rochedale Rovers

1.95

Redlands United

1.74

Rochedale Rovers creates 12% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 60 away

1.45

creates per match

1.35

2.13

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Rochedale Rovers

1.45

Redlands United

1.35

allows per match

Rochedale Rovers

2.13

Redlands United

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Redlands United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochedale Rovers ↓

Redlands United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Rochedale Rovers or draw

65%

Rochedale Rovers or Redlands United

78%

Draw or Redlands United

57%

Winning margin

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+

24%

Redlands United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals

86%

Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals

58%

Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals

31%

Redlands United 1+ goals

82%

Redlands United 2+ goals

52%

Redlands United 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)

55%

Redlands United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochedale Rovers at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Redlands United away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.45 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochedale Rovers attack 1.45 + Redlands United defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.95

Redlands United attack 1.35 + Rochedale Rovers defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rochedale Rovers scores more

43%

level

22%

Redlands United scores more

35%

Rochedale Rovers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rochedale Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff