Redlands United 0–0 Rochedale Rovers

Redlands United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 1 – 1

Rochedale Rovers

4/5/2025

Queensland Premier League · Round 6The Amcal Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Redlands United36%

×Draw22%

Rochedale Rovers42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Redlands UnitedExpected goals in this matchRochedale Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.89

Redlands United

1.73

Rochedale Rovers

1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

2.19

creates per match

2.21

1.56

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Redlands United

2.19

Rochedale Rovers

2.21

allows per match

Redlands United

1.56

Rochedale Rovers

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Redlands United+0.00on par

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redlands United ↓

Rochedale Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Redlands United or draw

58%

Redlands United or Rochedale Rovers

78%

Draw or Rochedale Rovers

64%

Winning margin

Redlands United wins by 2+

18%

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Redlands United 1+ goals

82%

Redlands United 2+ goals

52%

Redlands United 3+ goals

25%

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals

85%

Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals

56%

Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Redlands United (draw refunded)

46%

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redlands United at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Rochedale Rovers away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redlands United attack 2.19 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rochedale Rovers attack 2.21 + Redlands United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Redlands United scores more

36%

level

22%

Rochedale Rovers scores more

42%

Rochedale Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rochedale Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff