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Rochedale Rovers vs Olympic — Queensland NPL 2026

Rochedale Rovers
Rochedale Rovers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympic
Olympic
C. Dehmie 56' (pen)
7/13/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 18OldMac Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rochedale Rovers30%
×Draw22%
Olympic49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochedale Rovers
1.52
Olympic
2.00

Olympic creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 87 away

creates per match

Rochedale Rovers
1.47
Olympic
1.83

allows per match

Rochedale Rovers
2.16
Olympic
1.56

finishing

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par
Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochedale Rovers ↓

Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rochedale Rovers or draw
51%
Rochedale Rovers or Olympic
78%
Draw or Olympic
70%

Winning margin

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+
14%
Olympic wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals
78%
Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals
45%
Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals
20%
Olympic 1+ goals
86%
Olympic 2+ goals
59%
Olympic 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)
38%
Olympic (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochedale Rovers at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

Olympic away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.56 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochedale Rovers attack 1.47 + Olympic defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Olympic attack 1.83 + Rochedale Rovers defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rochedale Rovers scores more
30%
level
22%
Olympic scores more
49%

Olympic at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
C. DehmiePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rochedale Rovers vs Olympic

Olympic beat Rochedale Rovers 1-0 in Queensland NPL on July 13, 2024.

Goals: C. Dehmie (56' pen).

The match was played at OldMac Stadium in Brisbane.