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Olympic vs Rochedale Rovers — Queensland NPL 2026

Olympic
Olympic
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rochedale Rovers
Rochedale Rovers
C. Dehmie 20'
L. Farr 2'
4/14/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 7Goodwin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Olympic56%
×Draw22%
Rochedale Rovers22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympic
1.91
Rochedale Rovers
1.10

Olympic creates 74% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 31 away

creates per match

Olympic
1.97
Rochedale Rovers
1.06

allows per match

Olympic
1.14
Rochedale Rovers
1.84

finishing

Olympic+0.00on par
Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympic ↓

Rochedale Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Olympic or draw
78%
Olympic or Rochedale Rovers
78%
Draw or Rochedale Rovers
44%

Winning margin

Olympic wins by 2+
33%
Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Olympic 1+ goals
85%
Olympic 2+ goals
57%
Olympic 3+ goals
30%
Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals
67%
Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals
30%
Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Olympic (draw refunded)
72%
Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympic at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.14 · 86 matches

Rochedale Rovers away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympic attack 1.97 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.91

Rochedale Rovers attack 1.06 + Olympic defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Olympic scores more
56%
level
22%
Rochedale Rovers scores more
22%

Olympic at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
L. Farr
6'
20'
C. Dehmie

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympic vs Rochedale Rovers

Olympic beat Rochedale Rovers 2-0 in Queensland NPL on April 14, 2024.

Goals: L. Farr (2'), C. Dehmie (20').

The match was played at Goodwin Park in Brisbane.