Rochedale Rovers 1–2 Mitchelton: Result & Stats

Rochedale Rovers

FT

1 – 2

Mitchelton

7/16/2022

Queensland Premier League · Round 12OldMac Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rochedale Rovers65%

×Draw17%

Mitchelton18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rochedale RoversExpected goals in this matchMitchelton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.76

1.39

Rochedale Rovers

2.76

Mitchelton

1.39

Rochedale Rovers creates 99% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 43 away

2.85

creates per match

1.33

1.44

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Rochedale Rovers

2.85

Mitchelton

1.33

allows per match

Rochedale Rovers

1.44

Mitchelton

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Mitchelton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochedale Rovers ↓

Mitchelton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Rochedale Rovers or draw

82%

Rochedale Rovers or Mitchelton

83%

Draw or Mitchelton

35%

Winning margin

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+

45%

Mitchelton wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals

94%

Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals

76%

Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals

51%

Mitchelton 1+ goals

75%

Mitchelton 2+ goals

40%

Mitchelton 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)

79%

Mitchelton (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochedale Rovers at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Mitchelton away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochedale Rovers attack 2.85 + Mitchelton defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.76

Mitchelton attack 1.33 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Rochedale Rovers scores more

65%

level

17%

Mitchelton scores more

18%

Rochedale Rovers at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Rochedale Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff