Mitchelton 1–2 Rochedale Rovers: Result & Stats

Mitchelton

FT

1 – 2

Rochedale Rovers

4/11/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 4Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mitchelton24%

×Draw19%

Rochedale Rovers57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MitcheltonExpected goals in this matchRochedale Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.40

Mitchelton

1.50

Rochedale Rovers

2.40

Rochedale Rovers creates 60% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 33 away

1.73

creates per match

2.21

2.59

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Mitchelton

1.73

Rochedale Rovers

2.21

allows per match

Mitchelton

2.59

Rochedale Rovers

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Rochedale Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw

43%

Mitchelton or Rochedale Rovers

81%

Draw or Rochedale Rovers

76%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+

10%

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals

78%

Mitchelton 2+ goals

44%

Mitchelton 3+ goals

19%

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals

91%

Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals

69%

Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)

29%

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

Rochedale Rovers away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rochedale Rovers attack 2.21 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mitchelton scores more

24%

level

19%

Rochedale Rovers scores more

57%

Rochedale Rovers at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rochedale Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Mitchelton 1–2 Rochedale Rovers

Rochedale Rovers beat Mitchelton 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Teralba Park in Mitchelton.

Mitchelton vs Rochedale Rovers — Queensland Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Queensland Premier League: Mitchelton 1–2 Rochedale Rovers