Rochedale Rovers 1–3 Lions: Result & Stats

Rochedale Rovers

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Lions

3/6/2026

Queensland NPL · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Rochedale Rovers22%

×Draw20%

Lions59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rochedale RoversExpected goals in this matchLions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.29

Rochedale Rovers

1.33

Lions

2.29

Lions creates 72% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 100 away

1.45

creates per match

2.46

2.13

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Rochedale Rovers

1.45

Lions

2.46

allows per match

Rochedale Rovers

2.13

Lions

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochedale Rovers ↓

Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Rochedale Rovers or draw

41%

Rochedale Rovers or Lions

80%

Draw or Lions

78%

Winning margin

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+

9%

Lions wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals

74%

Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals

38%

Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals

15%

Lions 1+ goals

90%

Lions 2+ goals

66%

Lions 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)

27%

Lions (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochedale Rovers at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Lions away — creates 2.46, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochedale Rovers attack 1.45 + Lions defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33

Lions attack 2.46 + Rochedale Rovers defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rochedale Rovers scores more

22%

level

20%

Lions scores more

59%

Lions at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff