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Lions vs Rochedale Rovers — Queensland NPL 2026

Lions
Lions
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Rochedale Rovers
Rochedale Rovers
3/1/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 2Lions FC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lions65%
×Draw19%
Rochedale Rovers16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lions
2.35
Rochedale Rovers
1.10

Lions creates 114% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lions
2.85
Rochedale Rovers
1.06

allows per match

Lions
1.15
Rochedale Rovers
1.84

finishing

Lions+0.00on par
Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lions ↓

Rochedale Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Lions or draw
84%
Lions or Rochedale Rovers
81%
Draw or Rochedale Rovers
35%

Winning margin

Lions wins by 2+
42%
Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lions 1+ goals
90%
Lions 2+ goals
68%
Lions 3+ goals
41%
Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals
67%
Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals
30%
Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lions (draw refunded)
80%
Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lions at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.15 · 96 matches

Rochedale Rovers away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lions attack 2.85 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.35

Rochedale Rovers attack 1.06 + Lions defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lions scores more
65%
level
19%
Rochedale Rovers scores more
16%

Lions at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Lions 3–2 Rochedale Rovers

Lions beat Rochedale Rovers 3-2 in Queensland NPL on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Lions FC Stadium in Brisbane.