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Rochedale Rovers vs Ipswich Knights — Queensland Premier League 2021

Rochedale Rovers
Rochedale Rovers
FT
4 – 3
Ipswich Knights
Ipswich Knights
7/9/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 17OldMac Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Rochedale Rovers59%
×Draw18%
Ipswich Knights23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochedale Rovers
2.73
Ipswich Knights
1.69

Rochedale Rovers creates 62% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 20 away

creates per match

Rochedale Rovers
2.85
Ipswich Knights
1.95

allows per match

Rochedale Rovers
1.44
Ipswich Knights
2.60

finishing

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par
Ipswich Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochedale Rovers ↓

Ipswich Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Rochedale Rovers or draw
77%
Rochedale Rovers or Ipswich Knights
82%
Draw or Ipswich Knights
41%

Winning margin

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+
39%
Ipswich Knights wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals
93%
Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals
75%
Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals
50%
Ipswich Knights 1+ goals
82%
Ipswich Knights 2+ goals
50%
Ipswich Knights 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)
72%
Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochedale Rovers at home — creates 2.85, concedes 1.44 · 34 matches

Ipswich Knights away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochedale Rovers attack 2.85 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.73

Ipswich Knights attack 1.95 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rochedale Rovers scores more
59%
level
18%
Ipswich Knights scores more
23%

Rochedale Rovers at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rochedale Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rochedale Rovers vs Ipswich Knights

Rochedale Rovers beat Ipswich Knights 4-3 in Queensland Premier League on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at OldMac Stadium in Brisbane.