Ipswich Knights 1–3 Rochedale Rovers

Ipswich Knights

FT

1 – 3

Rochedale Rovers

7/30/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 18Eric Evans Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ipswich Knights25%

×Draw20%

Rochedale Rovers55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ipswich KnightsExpected goals in this matchRochedale Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.23

Ipswich Knights

1.46

Rochedale Rovers

2.23

Rochedale Rovers creates 53% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

1.65

creates per match

2.21

2.25

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Ipswich Knights

1.65

Rochedale Rovers

2.21

allows per match

Ipswich Knights

2.25

Rochedale Rovers

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ipswich Knights+0.00on par

Rochedale Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich Knights ↓

Rochedale Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Ipswich Knights or draw

45%

Ipswich Knights or Rochedale Rovers

80%

Draw or Rochedale Rovers

75%

Winning margin

Ipswich Knights wins by 2+

11%

Rochedale Rovers wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Ipswich Knights 1+ goals

77%

Ipswich Knights 2+ goals

43%

Ipswich Knights 3+ goals

18%

Rochedale Rovers 1+ goals

89%

Rochedale Rovers 2+ goals

65%

Rochedale Rovers 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)

31%

Rochedale Rovers (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich Knights at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

Rochedale Rovers away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich Knights attack 1.65 + Rochedale Rovers defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rochedale Rovers attack 2.21 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ipswich Knights scores more

25%

level

20%

Rochedale Rovers scores more

55%

Rochedale Rovers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rochedale Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff