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Rochdale vs Oxford United — League One 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
CANC
14:00
Oxford United
Oxford United
4/4/2020League OneLeague One · Round 41Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rochdale35%
×Draw25%
Oxford United39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.36
Oxford United
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 135 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.33
Oxford United
1.36

allows per match

Rochdale
1.54
Oxford United
1.39

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Oxford United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
61%
Rochdale or Oxford United
75%
Draw or Oxford United
65%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
16%
Oxford United wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
74%
Rochdale 2+ goals
39%
Rochdale 3+ goals
16%
Oxford United 1+ goals
77%
Oxford United 2+ goals
42%
Oxford United 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
47%
Oxford United (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rochdale scores more
35%
level
25%
Oxford United scores more
39%

Oxford United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rochdale vs Oxford United — Match Preview

Rochdale face Oxford United on April 4, 2020 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rochdale host Oxford United at Crown Oil Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.