Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Oxford United vs Rochdale — League One 2018

Oxford United
Oxford United
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rochdale
Rochdale
E. Moore 82', 35'
O. Shodipo 58'
M. Lund 42' (pen)
11/3/2020League OneLeague One · Round 11The Kassam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Oxford United50%
×Draw23%
Rochdale27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oxford United
1.77
Rochdale
1.25

Oxford United creates 42% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 72 away

creates per match

Oxford United
1.70
Rochdale
1.38

allows per match

Oxford United
1.13
Rochdale
1.85

finishing

Oxford United+0.00on par
Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oxford United ↓

Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Oxford United or draw
73%
Oxford United or Rochdale
77%
Draw or Rochdale
50%

Winning margin

Oxford United wins by 2+
27%
Rochdale wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Oxford United 1+ goals
83%
Oxford United 2+ goals
53%
Oxford United 3+ goals
26%
Rochdale 1+ goals
71%
Rochdale 2+ goals
36%
Rochdale 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Oxford United (draw refunded)
65%
Rochdale (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oxford United at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oxford United attack 1.70 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.77

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Oxford United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Oxford United scores more
50%
level
23%
Rochdale scores more
27%

Oxford United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Oxford United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
E. MooreOxford UnitedOxford United · D
8.9

Match Events

35'
E. Moore
42'
M. LundPenalty
45'
Jimmy Ryan
56'
Oliver Rathbone
57'
O. Shodipo← D. Agyei
58'
O. Shodipo↳ M. McGuane
67'
M. Sykes← M. McGuane
69'
R. McLaughlin← J. Keohane
72'
James Henry
74'
F. Tavares← J. Ryan
80'
M. Done← T. Bola
82'
E. Moore↳ A. Forde
85'
J. Mousinho← Álex Gorrín
90'
Sean Clare

Possession

47%Oxford

Shots

14Oxford

Pass accuracy

50%Oxford

Statistics

OxfordRochdale
Overview
47%Possession53%
14Total Shots11
11Corners6
12Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots11
5On Target3
5Off Target1
4Blocked7
9Inside Box7
5Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
387Total Passes419
313Accurate Passes338
81%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Oxford United vs Rochdale

Oxford United beat Rochdale 3-1 in League One on November 3, 2020.

Goals: E. Moore (35', 82'), M. Lund (42' pen), O. Shodipo (58').

Rochdale controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Kassam Stadium in Oxford, Oxfordshire.