Rochdale 2–2 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Rochdale

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Leyton Orient

A. Newby 90', 1'

C. Clay 66'

A. Drinan 24'

11/13/2021

League Two · Round 16Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale38%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.25

Rochdale

1.29

Leyton Orient

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 94 away

1.38

creates per match

1.17

1.32

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Rochdale

1.38

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Rochdale

1.32

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

64%

Rochdale or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

62%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

17%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

72%

Rochdale 2+ goals

37%

Rochdale 3+ goals

14%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

71%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

36%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

51%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rochdale scores more

38%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

36%

Rochdale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Newby

Rochdale · F

8.0

Match Events

1'

A. Newby↳ C. O'Keeffe

11'

15'

24'

30'

31'

66'

67'

67'

69'

70'

76'

D. Pratley← H. Kyprianou

81'

R. Sotiriou← A. Drinan

90+3'

Joel Coleman

90+3'

Harry Smith

90'

A. Newby

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RochdaleLeyton

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots15

8Corners2

5Fouls5

Shots

10Total Shots15

5On Target3

4Off Target9

1Blocked3

8Inside Box10

2Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

398Total Passes376

255Accurate Passes248

64%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls5

3Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3