Leyton Orient 2–1 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Leyton Orient

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Rochdale

I. El Mizouni 29'

R. Sotiriou 18'

D. Lloyd-McGoldrick 56'

2/14/2023

League Two · Round 32Brisbane Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Leyton Orient45%

×Draw27%

Rochdale28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leyton OrientExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.04

Leyton Orient

1.39

Rochdale

1.04

Leyton Orient creates 34% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 56 away

1.41

creates per match

0.95

1.13

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Leyton Orient

1.41

Rochdale

0.95

allows per match

Leyton Orient

1.13

Rochdale

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leyton Orient ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leyton Orient or draw

72%

Leyton Orient or Rochdale

73%

Draw or Rochdale

55%

Winning margin

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

21%

Rochdale wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

75%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

40%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

16%

Rochdale 1+ goals

65%

Rochdale 2+ goals

28%

Rochdale 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

61%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leyton Orient at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 98 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leyton Orient attack 1.41 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Leyton Orient defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leyton Orient scores more

45%

level

27%

Rochdale scores more

28%

Leyton Orient at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leyton Orient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

I. El Mizouni

Leyton Orient · M

7.9

Match Events

18'

R. Sotiriou↳ T. Archibald

28'

Owen Dodgson

29'

I. El Mizouni

56'

D. Lloyd-McGoldrick↳ S. Quigley

63'

J. Lyden← C. Clay

63'

C. Kelman← T. Archibald

67'

J. Ball← T. Diagouraga

67'

E. Ebanks-Landell← R. Bennett

69'

Abraham Odoh

69'

A. Thompson← J. Sweeney

79'

S. Ogie← T. James

83'

Ethan Ebanks-Landell

85'

F. Seriki← M. Taylor

85'

T. Campbell← S. Quigley

90+5'

Charlie Kelman

90'

Tahvon Campbell

90+2'

D. Bughail-Mellor← J. Keohane

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeytonRochdale

Overview

66%Possession34%

22Total Shots7

6Corners3

10Fouls12

Shots

22Total Shots7

8On Target4

11Off Target2

3Blocked1

14Inside Box4

8Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

523Total Passes270

412Accurate Passes160

79%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1