Rochdale 0–3 Hull City: Result & Stats | League One

Rochdale

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Hull City

J. Magennis 75'

M. Wilks 73', 20'

10/17/2020

League One · Round 6Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Rochdale25%

×Draw23%

Hull City52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.81

Rochdale

1.19

Hull City

1.81

Hull City creates 52% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 23 away

1.33

creates per match

2.09

1.54

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Rochdale

1.33

Hull City

2.09

allows per match

Rochdale

1.54

Hull City

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

48%

Rochdale or Hull City

77%

Draw or Hull City

75%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

10%

Hull City wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

70%

Rochdale 2+ goals

33%

Rochdale 3+ goals

12%

Hull City 1+ goals

84%

Hull City 2+ goals

54%

Hull City 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

33%

Hull City (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Hull City away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Hull City defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19

Hull City attack 2.09 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rochdale scores more

25%

level

23%

Hull City scores more

52%

Hull City at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Honeyman

Hull City · M

8.3

Match Events

20'

M. Wilks↳ C. Elder

54'

R. McLaughlin← P. McShane

59'

S. Dooley← J. Ryan

67'

Jake Beesley

73'

M. Wilks↳ J. Magennis

75'

J. Magennis↳ G. Honeyman

76'

T. Eaves← J. Magennis

76'

R. Slater← G. Docherty

80'

A. Jones← R. Smallwood

81'

Matthew Lund

85'

M. Done← M. Lund

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RochdaleHull

Overview

60%Possession40%

7Total Shots19

3Corners9

9Fouls9

Shots

7Total Shots19

2On Target5

3Off Target8

2Blocked6

3Inside Box12

4Outside Box7

Passing

60%Possession40%

498Total Passes318

411Accurate Passes234

83%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1